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A Iraqi political source in the city of Al-Najaf has stated that Al-Sadr movement’s Leader Muqtada al-Sadr "is preparing to be Iraq’s Hasan Nasrallah and play a major influential role" and warned that "partisan struggles for the political leadership of Iraq’s Shiites will take place in Al-Najaf, Karbala, and other central Euphrates and southern cities."

The source which spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity by telephone from Al-Najaf said that "the leader of Al-Sadr movement is holding in his family’s home in Al-Hananah quarter, intensive meetings with leaders of his movement in an effort to put their affairs in order and resolve some conflicts and struggles inside it, especially between those wearing turbans and those not wearing them (Mullahs and non-mullahs). The first are asserting that they are the ones who protected the Trend and its permanence while the others believe they were the ones credited with making the Trend a political movement."

The source went on to say that discussions during the meeting also focused on the removal of some the traditional leaders whom Al-Sadr believes are undisciplined or not in tune with the times, especially as some symbols of the movement have yet to appear in Al-Najaf since Al-Sadr’s return.

The political source went on to say: "Al-Sadr returned to Iraq arrogant with power after having left Al-Najaf in secret for fear of being arrested by American forces. But his movment today has 40 seats in the Iraqi House of Representatives and seven ministers in the government. This hastened his return to play an influential political role that is to a large extent similar to the role of Hasan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to what those close to Al-Sadr are asserting."

The source pointed out that "the attention the Iraqi political leaders are paying Al-Sadr is giving him stronger impetus" and referred to "the visit by President Jalal Talabani, leader of the Democratic Union of Kurdistan, to Al-Sadr in his house in Al-Najaf and the telephone contact Dr. Iyad Allawi, the former Iraqi prime minister and Al-Iraqiya List leader, had with him the day before yesterday."

The source noted that, "leaders of the traditional Shiite parties are not happy with Al-Sadr’s return to Al-Najaf, the capital of Shiite influence." It added that "hot political struggles between the Shiite parties for control of the Shiite influence are going to surface through events, especially between Al-Sadr Trend and Al-Dawa Party, which is led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, on one hand and between the Trend and the Islamic Supreme Council [IISC] which is led by Ammar al-Hakim on the other hand." It warned that "the struggle between Al-Sadr Trend and the IISC is going to be more public due to the historic struggle for control of Al-Najaf between Al-Sadr and Al-Hakim’s families."

The source believes that "Muqtada al-Sadr will not forget his traditional enemies easily or the battles the current Prime Minster Nuri Al-Maliki led against his Trend in which many of his supporters were killed or arrested. Hence, the struggle between Al-Sadr and Al-Maliki will not be confined only to the partisan one between Al-Sadr Trend and Al-Dawa Party but personal aspects and settlement of accounts might be involved which will weaken both sides, particularly as Al-Dawa Party considers itself as having greater Shiite influence in Iraq and does not accept anything less than that. This Shiite party even sees itself as the only political representative of Iraq’s Shiites following the reduced influence of IISC in the recent legislative elections and its failure to obtain important ministries in Al-Maliki’s second government." The source does not rule out the possibility of "Al-Sadr starting his battle with Al-Maliki by criticizing the government’s performance and through his ministers and parliamentary deputies so as to weaken the prime minister’s position without triumphing over him" and pointed out that the "coming months will see noticeable tensions between the Shiite parties’ leaders and the people of Al-Najaf are fearful of Al-Sadr Trend’s calm before the storm."

However, Baha al-Aaraji, the leader in the Trend who is close to Muqtada, has said "Iraq is not Lebanon. What applies there cannot be applied here. In his speeches and statements, Muqtada al-Sadr stresses the need to stay away from weapons and demands that any issue should be resolved politically." He pointed out that the Trend leader "is expecting the government to provide the services to the Iraqi people and to get the American occupation forces out. He will back the government and give it the chance even though he had said it was weak. We will comment if his demands, which are for the Iraqis, are not fulfilled." He told Asharq Al-Awsat "there is a roadmap that is not yet clear and things will become clearer after "fortieth" celebration which marks the anniversary of the martyrdom of Imam Al-Hussein, when large meetings will be held."

Al-Sadr’s Hezbollah designs for Iraq Asharq Alawsat Newspaper (English)

اعتبر ائتلاف العراقية بزعامة اياد علاوي تأجيل المصادقة على نتائج الانتخابات "محاولة مقصودة" لاعطاء ائتلافي دولة القانون والوطني وقتاً أكبر لانقاذ تحالفهما الانتخابي بعد الفشل المتواصل في حسم مرشح توافقي لرئاسة الحكومة.
وقال عضو العراقية شاكر كتاب ان "المقصود من التأجيل هو كسب الوقت والحيلولة دون اجتماع البرلمان أطول وقت ممكن لاعطاء فرصة أكبر للائتلافين لانقاذ تحالفهما لا سيما بعد التلكؤ الاخير والاختلافات التي برزت بينهما في الآونة الاخيرة"حسب قوله.
من جانبه قال مصدر في الائتلاف الوطني فضل عدم ذكر اسمه ان "الاسبوع المقبل سيشهد اجتماعاً مهماً للائتلاف الوطني ينصب على اختيار مرشح واحد من بين اثنين او ثلاثة من أعضائه للتنافس مع مرشح دولة القانون على منصب رئاسة الحكومة من داخل التحالف الجديد".
ولفت الى ارتفاع حظوظ عادل عبدالمهدي القيادي في "المجلس الاعلى الاسلامي العراقي" بواقع 22 مقعداً امام منافسيه الآخرين.
ورأى ان "عبد المهدي هو الاقرب الى هذه التصفيات كونه مدعوماً من حزب يحتل اكثر من 20 مقعداً داخل الائتلاف… وفي حال استوجب منصب رئيس الوزراء، بحسب ما يتفق عليه من نقاط، الى عدد اكبر من المقاعد فمن السهولة التحالف مع مكون آخر لتحقيق ذلك".

تناولت صحيفة "الاندبندنت" البيرطانية نتائج الانتخابات العراقية التي تم الاعلان عن بعض منها حتى الان والاتهامات التي تملأ اجواء العراق من قبل قوى رئيسية رئيسية حول ما تقول انها تدخلات في عمليات فرز واحصاء الاصوات والخارطة السياسية المتوقعة والتحالفات التي يمكن ان تبرم على ضوء النتائج النهائية.
وراى كبير مراسلي الصحيفة باتريك كوكبيرن ان التنافس الحاد بين قائمة رئيس الحكومة العراقية نوري المالكي وقائمة اياد علاوي سترغم المالكي على البحث عن شركاء لتشكيل الحكومة العراقية المقبلة.
واعتبرالمراسل ان تحقيق المالكي الفوز في هذا السباق يتوقف على العاصمة بغداد ومدينة البصرة اللتين تعتبران مركز ثقل الناخبين.
فبغداد التي اصبحت ذات غالبية شيعية بارزة اثر تفجر اعمال العنف الطائفي في العراق خلال عامي 2007 و2007 يتنافس فيها المالكي مع الكتلة الشيعية الاخرى الكبيرة، الائتلاف الوطني العراقي التي تضم المجلس الاسلامي العراقي بزعامة عمار الحكيم والموالين لرجل الدين مقتدى الصدر الذين يتمركزون في مدينة الصدر التي تضم ثلث سكان العاصمة البالغ عددهم ستة ملايين.
وينقل كوكبيرن عن قادة من جماعة الصدر انهم لن يقبلوا بتولي المالكي رئاسة الحكومة مرة اخرى ويتهمونه بالتخلي عنهم بعد الوصول الى رئاسة الحكومة عام 2006.
كما ان التحالف الكردستاني الذي سيكون له ايضا دور كبير في تشكيل الحكومة المقبلة لا يشعر بالارتياح من عودة المالكي الى سدة رئاسة الحكومة مرة ثانية على ضوء التوتر بين الطرفين حول المناطق المتناوع عليها بين الاكراد والعرب مثل كركوك وديالي والموصل.
وتقول الاوساط الغربية ان فرض عقوبات على طهران بات وشيكا
واكد المراسل ان التحالف الكردستاني يرغب باستبدال المالكي ما لم يقدم تنازلا كبيرا حول هذه القضية ومن شبه المستحيل اقامة ائتلاف حكومي متماسك ومستقر في العراق دون مشاركة الجانب الكردي فيه.

Baghdad (AsiaNews) – Voting in parliamentary elections in Iraq starts today, with a part of the electorate called to the polls in advance of the March 7date. This amounts to 796 thousand people – including soldiers, prison officers and health care workers and hospitalized patients – divided into 450 polling stations opened specifically in all regions. Tomorrow it will be the turn of Iraqis abroad. In the meantime, suicide bombers attacked two polling stations in different areas of Baghdad killing at least seven people and wounding many others .   

There are six candidates for the post  of prime minister: the current prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, Vice President Adel Abdel Mahdi, Minister of Finance Baqer Jaber Solage, Iyad Allawi, prime minister of the first post-Saddam Iraqi government, the controversial financier linked to the CIA and former deputy prime minister Ahmed Chalabi, and Interior Minister Jawad Bolani. This time the political spectrum of candidates in the running are very different than that of the last elections in 2005. 

The split of the Shiites

The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the Shiite coalition that won in 2005, no longer exists. Its dissolution has marked the split of the Shiites. The new coalition, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), brings together parties along more confessional lines, such as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) led by Ammar al-Hakim, a current of Moqtada al-Sadr and Fadhila party, but does not include the followers of the Da’wa Party who have remained loyal to al-Maliki, who has founded a new list. It is the Alliance for the Rule of Law, which aims to have a more nationalist and secular spirit (so much so that he tried to involve some Sunnis and Kurds), but has failed to unmark a suspected close reliance on the Islamic regime in Tehran .     The recent campaign de-baathification – which excluded 500 candidates, mostly Sunnis – put the outgoing premier in a bad light for having supported the move, causing him to lose credibility as a figure above the sectarian struggles. 

Allawi’s "secularists"

It’s a real debut at the polls, however, for the Iraqi National Movement (INM), led by former prime minister, Iyad Allawi (Shiite). The coalition also includes several Sunni formations and offers itself as the only real secular grouping. The INM is the greatest opponent to the INA and the list of al-Maliki, and was also struck by  the controversial de-baathification campaign.     

The Sunni Front

After the boycott of the vote in 2005, a choice that relegated them to the margins of decision making in the country, the Sunnis seem willing to take part in the elections. Sunni political groupings are present within INMA, but also on independent lists. 

The Kurds

Although the formations have maintained a strong Kurdish identity, even here the political landscape has changed. For the two historical parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), have been moine by Gorran (Movement for Change), led by a former member of the PUK, Pusherwan Mustafa. The movement that emerged in the regional elections in July, promotes itself as independent and the sole opponent of corruption and cronyism.   

The idea now seems established that national reconciliation is no longer an issue of  resolving the conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, but between advocates of a centralized unitary state (the formation of al-Maliki) and proponents of a federal or confederal state (Kurds and of the Sunnis), between defenders of a secular approach (Allawi) and defenders of a religious approach.

Source: IRAQ All parties in Iraq set for the vote – by Layla Yousif Rahema – AsiaNews

BAGHDAD: A powerful political group contesting Iraq’s parliamentary vote next month says it may challenge the validity of multi-billion-dollar oil deals the country has signed with foreign firms. Hazim Al-Araji, a senior member of Shiite cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr’s political movement, also intends to oppose the return in the next government of incumbent prime minister and poll candidate Nuri Al-Maliki, under whom the deals were signed.

There were great mistakes. The people in Maliki’s government are politicians and not technocrats, and are working in the interest of their party… The contracts were between companies and a party, and not between companies and a state," Araji said in an interview. He gave no details of what measures his faction may take to alter the deals, signed with firms such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell in two auctions for bids to develop lucrative Iraqi oilfields last year. Ten contracts were awarded. The Sadrists are a key player in a Shiite-led coalition taking part in the March 7 national vote, and are likely to be influential in Iraq’s next parliament, if not in government.

Analysts have said Iraq’s next leaders are unlikely to challenge the oil deals, given that they were signed with an unusually high level of transparency for the Middle East, and because the terms are weighted in Baghdad’s favor. Iraq, which has the world’s third-largest oil reserves, is keen to boost output to fund reconstruction after years of war. The Sadrist movement has wide support, mostly among the Shiite poor in the oil-producing south and deprived urban areas such as Baghdad’s Sadr City slum.

NEW PRIME MINISTER?

As a result of party negotiations, the movement will occupy at least a quarter of any seats won by the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), an election coalition led by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (ISCI), a powerful Shiite party. The two groups have sparred in the past, but now appear united in their desire to diminish Maliki’s power. Maliki, the Sadrists and ISCI were once allies in parliament’s largest bloc.

Maliki is contesting the March election as head of the State of Law coalition, and is not expected to do well enough to cling to power without building alliances with other groups, a process that could take months and leave a power vacuum in Iraq. A Sadrist wish to see Maliki removed from office could complicate and draw out negotiations. "We are advancing towards change, and that means a change of government and prime minister. We have no problem with Nuri Al-Maliki as a person, but we have a problem withhis program and his actions," Araji said.

In 2008, Maliki launched crackdowns on Sadr’s Mehdi Army militia, which once controlled parts of southern Iraq and Baghdad. For the most part, militiamen have been ordered to lay down their arms, but Araji said the militia was not disbanded. Statements from Sadr in the last two years had indicated his desire to shift his followers’ efforts from armed struggle to cultural and religious activities. Even though the Sadrists object to Iraq’s new oil deals, the Mehdi Army will not target foreign contractors who have started to arrive in the southern oil hub city, Basra, Araji said.

The Mehdi Army is there, but only to fight the occupiers. There will be no activities against anyone but the occupiers, who are the US forces, not civilians or foreign companies." Contrary to persistent rumors that Moqtada Al-Sadr has been in Iran for years pursuing his clerical studies, Araji said the Shiite leader was in Iraq. He declined to comment on whether Sadr would make an appearance during the election campaign. "We never said that Sadr was abroad. He is in Iraq, but the security situation means we cannot say where. Sure we need his presence, but our interest is to protect him," Araji said.

Sadrists reject Iraq oil deals » Kuwait Times Website

اتهم خطيب جمعة النجف صدر الدين القبانجي الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية بدعم الدول العربية بالضغط على الحكومة العراقية لإعادة البعثيين وعقد مؤتمر مصالحة معهم.
وأوضح القبانجي في خطبة الجمعة التي ألقاها في الحسينية الفاطمية بمدينة النجف ان حزب البعث هو الذي يخطط للعمليات الإرهابية التي يشهدها العراق، والقاعدة هي المنفذ، مشددا أن هذا الحزب هو رأس الفساد وعناصره موجودون في الداخل ومدعومون من الخارج، حسب قوله.
وطالب القبانجي الحكومة العراقية بالكشف عن الجهات والأسماء والوجوه التي تقف وراء العمليات الإرهابية.

BAGHDAD – By breaking ranks with his ruling Shiite alliance ahead of general elections in January, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has taken a gamble that could make or break his rule, analysts say.

The premier’s strategy was thrown into focus after his former allies named their candidates for the upcoming poll, a list that spurred Maliki to declare he was opting for a broader-based, multi-confessional alliance.

"He is betting, rightly or wrongly, on his own strength and his dynamics to win, but the others are wagering that he will fail," said anthropologist Hosham Dawood, who specialises in Iraqi tribal affairs.

The Shiite premier, who is determined to turn a new page in Iraq’s ethnically fractured political system, wants to create a coalition including tribal Sunni leaders as well as Shiite candidates.

He has been working on the plan for weeks, if not months, and is convinced it can succeed as it did in provincial elections seven months ago, when candidates he backed trumped his former allies in Shiite areas and Baghdad.

Maliki hopes his broad-based alliance, almost certain to be named the State of Law Coalition — as it was in January’s polls — can bridge the sectarian divide that has marred politics and security since the 2003 US-led invasion.

His former partners have banded together to form their own group, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which includes the influential Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) of Abdel Aziz Al-Hakim, who died in hospital in Iran last week after a long battle with cancer.

It also includes supporters of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

The INA, which is now the leading Shiite alliance and the largest group in parliament, on August 24 published a list of election candidates which excluded Maliki and his allies.

"The (new) Shiite coalition is focused on containing him and weakening him," Dawood said of Maliki. "They expect him to fail and are less concerned about charting their own strategy.

"But Maliki does not believe that his political future has been compromised even if he has faced serious security setbacks" in recent weeks, Dawood said.

Almost 100 people were killed and 600 others wounded on August 19 when massive twin truck bombings struck central Baghdad, outside the finance and foreign ministries.

Wayne White, a researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, believes Maliki will tread a dangerous path as he strives to forge a multi-confessional alliance, particularly after the security setbacks.

He could win because of "weaknesses" in the Shiite camp, namely long-standing rivalry between the SIIC and Sadr movements, White said, but he stressed that Maliki must also deal with concerns from Kurds in the autonomous north as well as from Sunni tribal chiefs.

Baghdad university professor Hamid Fadhel believes that Maliki will have to fine-tune his diplomatic skills if he wants to win the January vote.

The key, said the political sciences professor, is to strike an alliance with the Sunni tribal chiefs, with independents and with secular figures.

"Only then will he have a chance of succeeding," said Fadhel.

Iraq’s proportional representation system means that even if Maliki’s candidates win constituencies, he will have to forge alliances to become prime minister.

According to Maliki adviser Ali al-Musawi, the premier "is not in any hurry to reveal his list" although "many political groups are ready to join him."

Already Maliki has been buoyed by recent shows of support from Sunni groups and tribal leaders in Anbar province.

Maliki has drawn up a four-way strategy, according to Dawood.

"His aim is to marginalise Shiite rivals, win over the Sunni tribal chiefs, back Arab parties against Kurds in Kirkuk and Mosul and lead Americans into believing he is the only credible leader," Dawood said.

Source: Middle East Online

قالت مصادر عراقية مطلعة ان القيادي في المجلس الاعلى همام حمودي سيكون رئيسا للائتلاف العراقي بدل زعيمه السابق الراحل عبد العزيز الحكيم الذي كان يشغل المنصب.
وأضافت تلك المصادر إن علي الاديب القيادي في حزب الدعوة ونائب رئيس الائتلاف حالياً لن يتولى المنصب كونه من حصة المجلس الأعلى الأسلامي فقط.
وبينت وكالة الصحافة الفرنسية ان كبار قادة المجلس يعارضون تولي عمار الحكيم رئاسة المجلس، واشارت الى ان حمودي هو الاصلح للمهمة لان الحكيم كان قد كلفه إدارة الحوار حول ترميم الائتلاف نيابة عنه قبل دخوله المستشفى للعلاج.
ولم يصدر حتى الآن أي رد أو تعقيب رسمي من قبل الأديب أو عمار الحكيم على تلك الانباء.