Gorilla’s Guides

Is history repeating itself, asks Ayman El-Amir*

The Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki has completed the first phase of negotiations with the US over the long-term strategic agreement that will govern relations between the occupying power and occupied Iraq for decades to come. It will be supplemented by a “status of forces” agreement outlining the privileges and immunities of the 50,000-strong US military force that will be stationed in Iraq well beyond the formal withdrawal of the occupation army. Iraq will thus be incorporated into the “Axis of the Good” that includes the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council where the US has developed and maintains sprawling military bases and other facilities, encircling Iran and controlling the southern entrance to the Straits of Hormuz. Fifty years after the demise of the Baghdad Pact (1955-1958) the military alliance has not only been reborn, but is more expansive, with US Central Command at the helm and Iran replacing the former Soviet Union as the adversary.

In 1955, when the Cold War and the nuclear arms race between the former Soviet Union and the US had reached fever pitch, the Arab world was also undergoing deep transformation triggered by the Nasser-led 1952 Egyptian revolution. Egypt’s emerging role as a beacon of national liberation in the Arab region and in Africa was coveted by both superpowers though for different reasons. The Soviet Union, reversing the old-era Stalinist approach, wanted to embrace Third World revolutionary movements as a bulwark against the old imperial and colonial powers. The US secretary of state at the time, John Foster Dulles, was obsessed with the idea of blocking Communist expansion towards the Middle East which occupied strategic routes, waterways, and possessed burgeoning oil wealth.

The lines between Sadr and the Iraqi government are now clearly marked, writes Nermeen Al-Mufti

Baghdad marked the fifth anniversary of the onset of occupation with gloom, curfew and mortar fire. Turbulent events in Basra and the south were far from reassuring. Reports spoke of bloody clashes between government forces and the Mahdi Army of Moqtada Al-Sadr, while government officials threatened tougher actions against “bandits and outlaws”. Both Sadr City in northern Baghdad and Al-Shoala in western Baghdad saw intermittent clashes despite a curfew imposed by authorities. The relative peace Baghdad had enjoyed for nearly a year was evaporating.

Al-Sadr, now living in the Iranian city of Qom, called on his followers to stage a million-man march in Baghdad to protest against the occupation. Meanwhile, supporters of the occupation called for a demonstration of “joy” to mark the occasion. Up to 200 may have been killed in Sadr City over the past few days, according to eyewitnesses.

On 8 April, one day before the anniversary, the official spokesman for the Baghdad “Imposing Law” operations, Qassem Ata, urged participants in the celebratory march staged on “the anniversary of the downfall of the regime” to keep the event orderly and leave their guns at home. He added that Iraqi security forces would deploy along the path of the march to protect the participants, promising that the government would stamp out “the terrorists, bandits and outlaws who seek to undermine the safety of citizens”.

Earlier, official spokesman for Al-Sadr, Salah Al-Obeidi, called on all Iraqis to participate in a peaceful demonstration to mark the US occupation of Iraq. “We call on Iraqis from all walks of life to march in Baghdad on Wednesday, and we call on the Iraqi government to provide the demonstrators with protection,” he said at a press conference. Al-Obeidi accused Al-Sadr’s opponents of “creating obstacles to prevent the demonstration from taking place”.

Government forces, meanwhile, closed access roads to Baghdad and arrested travellers coming from the southern and central governorates. The government then declared 9 April a holiday and imposed a curfew on Baghdad. Consequently, Al-Sadr issued a statement calling off the demonstration to avoid bloodshed. His opponents, he claimed, were planning to “block the roads and implant spies”. Al-Sadr threatened to reverse the ceasefire orders he recently gave to the Mahdi Army.

Shifting dynamics leave Sadrists the occupation’s chief foe, reports Saad Abdel-Wahab from Baghdad

The strife in Iraq has become not only Shia- Sunni, but Shia-Shia and Sunni-Sunni. The Shia parties are fighting for their personal interests, especially in Basra, to gain seats in the provincial elections due to be held in October.

The dispute is very clear between the Mahdi Army, headed by Muqtada Al-Sadr, and the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), headed by Abdul-Aziz Al-Hakim. The Sadrists didn’t participate in the last provincial council, leaving SIIC in formal control in southern Iraq.

Some political observers believe that the battle of the provincial elections has already started between the Shia parties. The rivals appear to be trying to assassinate prominent figures of the other side.