Gorilla’s Guides

Lets’s talk about surprise:

By surprise we mean a state of disorientation resulting from an unexpected event that degrades the enemy’s ability to resist.We achieve surprise by striking the enemy at a time or place or in a manner for which the enemy is unprepared. It is not essential that we take the enemy unaware, but only that awareness came too late to react effectively. The desire for surprise is “more or less basic to all operations, for without it superiority at the decisive point is hardly conceivable.” While a necessary precondition of superiority, surprise is also a genuine source of combat power in its own right because of its psychological effect. Surprise can decisively affect the outcome of combat far beyond the physical means at hand. (page 42 et seq)

Surprise is not what we do; it is the enemy’s reaction to what we do. It depends at least as much on our enemy’s susceptibility to surprise — his expectations and preparedness. Our ability to achieve surprise thus rests on our ability to appreciate and then exploit our enemy’s expectations.

Warfighting - United States Marine Corps PDF

In an otherwise upbeat assessment, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the second-ranking American commander in Iraq, told reporters that leaders of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia had been alerted to the Baquba offensive by widespread public discussion of the American plan to clear the city before the attack began. He portrayed the Qaeda leaders’ escape as cowardice, saying that “when the fight comes, they leave,” abandoning “midlevel” Qaeda leaders and fighters to face the might of American troops — just, he said, as they did in Falluja.

Source: Militants Said to Flee Before U.S. Offensive - New York Times

It’s neither cowardly nor surprising that the senior ranks of those busy fighting the American attempt to subjugate Irak should remove themselves to an undisclosed secure location it’s good military practice. It’s also not news.

Neither is it news (or important) that “US troops battle “minefield” of bombs in Iraq’s Baquba” although the reporter’s use of quotation marks is mildly amusing. There is nothing either newsworthy or surprising about the fact that the people the American army are trying to kill in Diyala prepared a lethal obstacle course for them to get through. It’s not newsworthy that the current “surge” has failed the Americans have “surged” once a year and the militarily sensible thing to do when faced with overwhelming force is to retreat leaving behind just enough people to make it painful for the intruders to advance and to let the hamfisted muscle minded tank brain tactics of the U.S army provide you with more recruits, more sympathisers, more safe houses, more of everything you need.

The current set of U.S. offensives has already failed and in response to that failure one of the Generals who devised and implemented the failed tactics is complaining about “run away cowards” while neglecting to point out that the said “run away cowards” are busily bringing the mighty U.S: army to a grinding halt. That’s not news either. Once a year the Americans re-occupy Irak and once a year the Irakis deny them control of it by … killing them. That’s no longer news and incidentally “not fair” is rarely said by commanders of victorious forces.

Important news comes out of Irak all the time and doesn’t get picked up by western journalists or analysts. Here are some important storys that you won’t see in western media but they starkly illustrate the magnitude of the American defeat. (Hint the most important one is in the sidebar.)

Officials in the city of Kirkuk said that the increase in the number of blackouts in Kirkuk was because of a successful attack on the gas pipelines connecting power stations between Kirkuk and Baiji. They hope to have the pipeline repaired at the end of next week.

— In other words the northern bridge bombing campaign has successfully cut off Kirkuk from its hinterland and that success is now being followed up.

American occupation and government forces have killed 58 civilians and detained 40 people in their operation, targeting Diyala province, northeast of Baghdad, according to the Association of Muslim Scholars which said that the occupation army has continued operations for five days and that the killings and detentions were pretext that the victims belonged to Al-Qaeda organisation. They said that shelling had demolished houses over the heads of civilian residents that victims were buried under rubble and that many corpses had been buried in their gardens by survivors in the absence of any alternative. Wounded civilians were prevented from getting to hospital for treatment in the fighting the statement also said. — See remarks about recruiting sergeants

The price of bread in Diyala is now 250 dinars the price of gasoline is 2000 dinars. (And incidentally the baker’s strike in Karbala is in its third day) — See remarks about recruiting sergeants

Why on earth is a story about low ticket sales for soccer matches important?

Well it’s like this. Football supporters, the ones who buy tickets and turn up for matches, in Irak tend to be young and poor, quite a lot of them wear black when they’re not wearing a football shirt and jeans — and they’re expecting trouble. (See remarks about recruiting sergeants.)

Have a nice surge.

Saba Ali Iihsan, markfromireland,
Baghdad,
Irak.