Gorilla’s Guides

Siniora: Lebanon will be last country to make peace with Israel
By News Agencies

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said Wednesday that he refused to have any direct contact with Israel, and that Lebanon would be the last Arab country to ever sign a peace deal with it … … …

Full text of article on Haaretz.com

“Told you so (again)”

markfromireland

General Casey Wednesday August 30th 2006:

“I don’t have a definite date, but I can see, 12 to 18 months, the Iraqi security forces progressing to where they can take on security responsibilities with very little Coalition support,” Casey said.

[snip]

Casey is proud of the strides made so far, but said there is much work still to be done.

“I’m pleased with the progress to date, but we have a long way to go,” he said. [snip]

[Source: Centcom.mil]

Iraq Thursday August 31st 2006:

Baghdad

Baquba

Kirkuk

Najaf

In other violence, according to Iraqi authorities:

• Gunmen in Baqouba, 35 miles northeast of Baghdad, killed two brothers in a cotton shop.
• Gunmen shot and killed a member of the oil ministry’s security service and wounded another in Baghdad.
• An Iraqi soldier wearing civilian clothing was shot and killed while walking in the city of Mosul, 225 miles northwest of Baghdad.
• In Kut, 100 miles southeast of Baghdad, the body of a young woman riddled with bullets was brought to the morgue after being dumped on a main road.
• Gunmen killed a former intelligence official in Saddam Hussein’s regime as he was walking in Mahaweel area, about 35 miles south of Baghdad

What progress would that be exactly?

markfromireland

Before going further I suggest that you read The U.S. Library of Congress’ entry for Iraq’s water resources which can be found here.

“The increasing importance of water in geopolitical affairs is escalating the potential for conflict over water resources among nations. It is estimated that there are presently at least ten places in the world where war could erupt over dwindling water resources. Unfortunately the majority of these sites are in the vulnerable Middle East. The Euphrates and Tigris rivers are shared among different countries and with the depletion of water in the Middle East more conflicts have arisen. Projects are being developed to exploit the water resources in the area (Topkaya 1998). Projects like Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi (GAP), also referred to as the Southeast Anatolia Development Project, will create irrigation and hydropower and will use a lot of water (Lowi 1995). The total amount of water that is planned to be used by Turkey, Syria and Iraq exceeds the total flow capacity of the rivers (Topkaya 1998)” - Fahey 2001. [Emphasis mine - mfi]

There’s an article in Karbala news [Arabic Language] about Turkey’s dam construction projects. Don’t let the fact that it’s so short deceive you. This story is seriously bad news. The article starts by quoting an official source at the Ministry of Water Resources as saying that the project of building a dam on the Tigris would reduce the flow to Iraq from 20.93 billion cubic meters to 7.9 billion cubic meters.

“The source added in a press statement that such a shortfall in yield from the river has serious repercussions on Iraq in the areas of agriculture, drinking and power generation, industry and the revival of the marshes and the environment.”

The article concludes that it is noteworthy that the Turkish government has engaged in damming the “Euphrates and Tigris rivers without taking into account Iraq’s right to these rivers” and that “Great Turkey” is doing everything in it’s power to add to the suffering of the Iraqi people, that it is not enough that Iraqis be killed by “terrorism’s knife” but that now they must “die from thirst as well.”

One of my first instructors used to regularly start his lectures on sources of conflict in the Middle East by saying that “Once they start fighting about water they won’t stop until one side or the other is wiped out.” If you’re new to the topic of water as the flaspoint for war in the Middle two well written and fairly comprehensive resources are:

1. “Water Wars” in the Middle East: Ted Thornton
2. Water Resources in the Middle East: Colin Fahey

markfromireland

Hilla Bombing:

Thirteen people were killed and 38 wounded in this bombing*. Amongst the wounded was this child who lost both his arms. The bombing was of the National Guards recruitment center in the Nader district, a district on Hilla’s northern outskirts. Apart from the office itself the target was people queuing to apply for the guards. Some points you should note about this bombing are:

1. The recruitment centre was set up four days ago.
2. Its purpose was to boost enlistments by youths from the mainly Shiite areas around Samawa, Karbala and Najaf.

Baghdad - al-Shorja market*

The toll from this bombing at the time of writing is 24 dead and 35 wounded. That’s expected to go up as many of the wounded are seriously injured. Moreover the blood, and fuel shortages affecting Baghdad’s hospitals about which I most recently wrote here have still not been resolved.

Al-Shorja market in Gumhuriya Street is one of Baghdad’s main markets. It’s always very busy, very crowded, and is also a pick-up point for travellers going south. The bombing which was at al-Shorja’s pedestrian bridge was early this morning when al-Shorja have been very crowded indeed, amongst those present of course as the photograph to the right shows were many children. This market gets bombed fairly regularly and was last hit a few weeks ago. Frankly I’m surprised that the toll is as low as 24 dead and 35 wounded.

The aftermath of a bombing is invariably gruesome and, inevitably perhaps, difficult to describe to people who haven’t experienced it. This story from AFP on Yahoo fails to do justice to what the aftermath is like. Not to put to fine a point on it you have to literally pick up the pieces. (Erdla did a posting on precisely this topic back in March):

“The Baghdad market blast came despite a massive security crackdown in the violent Iraqi capital, rattling windows one kilometre (half a mile) away as a plume of dust and smoke climbed above the skyline.

Body parts were strewn across the area. Windows of nearby shops were shattered, two cars were ripped apart and a popular restaurant blown open.

“Firefighters are fighting to quell the fire as many shops are burning,” a police officer said at the scene, adding that the bomb had been placed in a bag and partially concealed by a bicycle.

“People are gathering the mobile phones and money of those killed and storing them in a nearby mosque. They were also collecting flesh and body parts in plastic bags,” he added.”

Baghdad - Karrada Carbomb

The toll from this bombing so far is three civilians were killed and 11 wounded. The bombing method chosen here was a car bomb explosion at a fuel station. Karrada’s a fairly upmarket part of Baghdad as I’ve noted before, more as I’ve also noted before to the point it’s controlled by SCIRI. It’s being subjected to increasingly large scale and sophisticated coordinated attacks.

A Few of The Other Reports today:

In Dora Baghad, the recently “pacified” Dora that is, the Dora that’s been singled out for “special protection” by the Americans and their greenzone allies, things don’t seem to be going all that well:

“The carnage in Baghdad extended even to the Dura district, which has been chosen by US and Iraqi forces for special protection, and violence there will be seen as a setback for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s peace plan.

A medic in the city’s Yarmuk hospital confirmed receiving seven bodies, including one of a first lieutenant in the Iraqi army and a senior female official in the justice ministry, after shootings in Dura.”

Khor Al-Zubair - a ship sank at Khor Al-Zubair about 40Km west of Basra. One crew member died, the remainder escaped. No reason given for the sinking in the statement by Basra port authorities.

Mosul: Three people were killed and six others wounded in three separate incidents in Mosul.

• A patrol opened fire on people at dawn who were breaking the curfew.
• A police patrol was fired upon 4 civilians and one policeman were wounded.
• Three people sitting at a coffee shop were injured when the coffee shop was attacked by gunmen.

“President” Talabani had a meeting with the South Korean ambassador. And urged South Korean companies to invest in Iraq especially Kurdistan - No surprises there, Talabani is of course Kurdish, and the Kurd’s are trying to break free from Iraq lot’s of dosh from South Korea would be very helpful. I doubt the South Koreans will take the bait.

Diwaniya update:

Juan Cole has a good roundup on the fighting in Diwaniya - the reports Juan cites confirm what I wrote yesterday in my posting “Another knockout?” that far from being passive during the fighting that the Americans were actively involved including bombing a house. Reports that the police chief was forced to resign have been denied and apparently not only is everything under control but a political solution is well on its way. This doubtless comes as news to the green zone government and their American masters overlords allies who according to this report on Yahoo news have cancelled the agreement:

“Iraqi Defence Minister Abdel Qader Jassim Mohammed canceled a truce between Shiite militia and security forces in the central town of Diwaniyah agreed after fighting left at least 81 people dead on Monday.”

American General Casey who according to the same report on Yahoo news said “That battle’s not finished yet. There were soldiers that were killed there,”

Now when a senior general in the Badr Brigade Death Squad Protection and Facilitation Forces American army in Iraq comes right out and says that the battle isn’t over yet it behoves us all to listen to him. Particularly when as General Casey did, he makes it clear that vengeance is about to wreaked. So for once I believe General Casey.

markfromireland

*Technical note: Contrary to reports that you may see in Western media neither of these were bicycle bombings. That description arises from a mistranslation. This particular method of attack involves rigging a motorbike with explosives. From here on in whenever you read “bicycle” or “bike” bombing in reports from Iraq just substitute “motorbike.” - mfi.

Update

Unfortunately I’m horribly short of time today and don’t have time to comment on this analysis by AP correspondent Robert Reid Analysis: Taking on al-Sadr carries risk on Yahoo news. For once he seems not to have bought the spin hook line and sinker, which is a minor miracle in itself. Worth a read. - mfi

“After the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2006, Hezbollah felt compelled to join the government to ensure a balance between the various Lebanese forces and protect Lebanon’s vulnerable position in the regional equation. This paper by the head of Hezbollah’s main think tank, asserts that the movement is determined to abide by Lebanon’s democratic political system based on the rule of consensus, and to support a strong central state, a transformation in the movement’s understanding of the requirements of the Lebanese domestic balance and its appreciation that internal stability is central to its national project if it is to succeed in its pan-Arab and Islamic mission. While the national dialogue started in spring, between all Lebanese factions was making progress on issues of power sharing, divergent views about foreign policy, first and foremost about the strategy towards Israel and about regional alliances constituted a major fault-line. On the eve of the war with Israel, Hezbollah was arguing that the issue of its armaments should be discussed within a broader debate on a national defense strategy that addresses reciprocal guarantees between Lebanese groups, and reconciles the resistance’s defensive function with the State’s strategy of regaining its sovereignty, away from external influences. In a vision of “inter-related balances” to which the leader of the movement sheikh Hasan Nasrallah is committed, Hezbollah’s contribution to the regional equation is an automatic result of its achievements in the domestic national arena. The Lebanese national interest is therefore the main criterion that determines the movement’s behaviour, and the contradiction between its domestic and regional roles no longer exists. In the aftermath of the war with Israel, Hezbollah’s regional popularity has grown beyond any expectations but the movement is reasserting its attachment to its Lebanese national agenda. … … …

“Hezbollah and the Lebanese State. Reconciling a National Strategy with a Regional Role” Ali Fayyad 28 August 2006

markfromireland